Automated baseline from FEMA and NOAA data, release 2026-10.
Fredericksburg city, VA
Risk-assessment baseline packet. Independent city FIPS 51630. Release 2026-10, data as of 2026-09-30.
Summary
Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2028-03-27. Plan: PDC 16 George Washington Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108941), approved 2023-03-28.
Update: FEMA tracker shows a plan in progress.
Since the plan was approved on 2023-03-28: 1 new hazard declaration (1 incident): EM-3631-VA (Severe Winter Storm).
NOAA Storm Events records since that date: 22 records (data through 2026-06-30).
Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($3,907,292 a year), Earthquake ($629,138) and Strong Wind ($573,100).
The packet's tables are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); the summaries below follow the same order.
PDC 16 George Washington Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108941)
Approved:
2023-03-28
Days to expiry:
544
Update underway:
FEMA tracker shows a plan in progress
What changed since your last plan (approved 2023-03-28)
New federal declarations:
1 new hazard declaration (1 incident): EM-3631-VA (Severe Winter Storm)
Storm Events records since approval:
22 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 0, SRL 0 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 4
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.
Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county
1 jurisdiction. Each row is that jurisdiction's own plan clock. Notes include other approved plans FEMA lists for the same jurisdiction.
Jurisdiction
Type
Status
Plan
Approved
Expires
Days to expirynegative = days since expiry
Update underway
Notes
Fredericksburg city
City
Approved, expires 2028-03-27
PDC 16 George Washington Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108941)
2023-03-28
2028-03-27
544
FEMA tracker shows a plan in progress
this jurisdiction approved 2023-04-11
Plan 108941 covers 6 other participants: Bowling Green town (Caroline County); Caroline County; King George County; Port Royal town (Caroline County); Spotsylvania County; Stafford County.
State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.
What the packet contains
Sections in FEMA checklist order; each heading names the review item its tables support. Full tables are in the downloads above.
15 of the 18 National Risk Index hazards apply here.
Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.
Highest expected annual loss (NRI, modeled): Inland Flooding, Earthquake and Strong Wind.
Not covered by NRI (local data needed): dam failure (incl. upstream dams); levee failure; flash flood as its own subtype; ice jams; debris flows; erosion (riverine and coastal); land subsidence and sinkholes; expansive soils.
The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b Hazard location
Coastal Flooding and Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.
Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather: Affects the whole county; national data give no location within it.
Storm Events records for 14 of the 20 NOAA event-type groups mapped to the 18 hazards, with the scale, observed range and worst recorded event for each; the others say which local data are needed.
Federal declarations for this area: 19 declarations covering 16 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet; each with type, dates and county Public Assistance dollars.
New since the last plan (approved 2023-03-28): EM-3631-VA.
3 statewide declarations listed separately.
Hazards with no Storm Events record and no federal declaration are stated as such (5 of 18).
Storm Events history: 351 records (notable ones in the PDF, all of them in the Excel file).
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e Probability of future events
FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) for each hazard, with a descriptor from a scale defined in the packet.
Highly likely: Hail, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather
Possible: Coastal Flooding, Hurricane and Landslide
Unlikely: Tornado
Historical frequency by intensity band (tornado, hail, wind): 9 bands from Storm Events.
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f Hazards that vary across jurisdictions
Range of census tract risk scores within the area for 15 of the 18 hazards (7 tracts; rated tracts only).
1 jurisdiction: plan clock, repeat-flood count, Public Assistance dollars and event records naming the place (starting figures from federal data).
County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.
Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b Vulnerability and potential impacts
The packet's table gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.
Storm Events damage since 2023-03-28: $57,000 in county-coded records (7 records); $0 reported for the zone (15 zone records). Data through 2026-06-30; nominal dollars.
Local data needed
To gather:
Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
Population 27,967; building value $6,421,373,839 and agriculture value $0 (total, not at risk).
National Risk Index rating Very Low; social vulnerability Very Low; community resilience Very High.
Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c Repetitive loss properties
Repetitive-loss properties, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2): 0 repetitive loss, 0 severe repetitive loss. NFIP insurance definition: 4 and 0.
Mitigated 0; insured 2; NFIP data as of 2026-08-02. Counts by occupancy group and for each jurisdiction are in the packet.
Releases
2026-10 (this release)
Each release is dated; this is release 2026-10. It was first published 2026-09-30; its files do not change. Later releases will be listed here with what changed between them. All releases.
Cite this
Hazard Plain (2026). Fredericksburg city, VA: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; Independent city FIPS 51630). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/va/51630/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.