Risk-assessment baseline packet. County FIPS 51165. Release 2026-10, data as of 2026-09-30.
Summary
Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Plan 111195 approved 2026-06-02, pending adoption here; not yet eligible. Plan: PDC 06 Central Shenandoah Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 111195), pending adoption here, approved 2026-06-02 by FEMA; not yet adopted here.
Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($25,667,080 a year), Hurricane ($2,825,812) and Drought ($1,084,478).
The packet's tables are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); the summaries below follow the same order.
What the packet contains
Sections in FEMA checklist order; each heading names the review item its tables support. Full tables are in the downloads above.
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a Hazard identification
15 of the 18 National Risk Index hazards apply here.
Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.
Highest expected annual loss (NRI, modeled): Inland Flooding, Hurricane and Drought.
Not covered by NRI (local data needed): dam failure (incl. upstream dams); levee failure; flash flood as its own subtype; ice jams; debris flows; erosion (riverine and coastal); land subsidence and sinkholes; expansive soils.
The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b Hazard location
- Avalanche, Earthquake, Hurricane, Landslide, Tornado and Wildfire vary within the county; the packet lists the highest-rated census tracts for each.
- Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather: affects the whole county; national data give no location within it.
- Inland Flooding: the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c Hazard extent
Storm Events records for 13 of the 20 NOAA event-type groups mapped to the 18 hazards, with the scale, observed range and worst recorded event for each; the others say which local data are needed.
Worst recorded tornado, hail and thunderstorm wind (the three event types on record since the 1950s; the packet has every group):
- Hail: 2.5 in hail, 1968-07-02
- Thunderstorm Wind: 70 kt (81 mph) estimated gust, Thunderstorm Wind, 2019-05-30; same speed and measurement basis also recorded on 2010-06-24, 2012-06-18
- Tornado: F2 tornado, 1952-04-05, 4.9 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 33 yd wide, $250,000 property (pre-1996 NOAA value, recorded in damage ranges); crops not recorded (1952 dollars)
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d Previous occurrences
Federal declarations for this area: 21 declarations covering 18 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet; each with type, dates and county Public Assistance dollars.
Plan 111195 was approved by FEMA on 2026-06-02 but is not yet adopted here, so no since-plan counts are given.
3 statewide declarations listed separately.
Hazards with no Storm Events record and no federal declaration are stated as such (6 of 18).
Storm Events history: 922 records (notable ones in the PDF, all of them in the Excel file).
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e Probability of future events
FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) for each hazard, with a descriptor from a scale defined in the packet.
- Highly likely: Hail, Landslide, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather
- Likely: Cold Wave, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Inland Flooding, Tornado and Wildfire
- Possible: Avalanche, Drought and Hurricane
- Unlikely: Earthquake
Historical frequency by intensity band (tornado, hail, wind): 9 bands from Storm Events.
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f Hazards that vary across jurisdictions
Range of census tract risk scores within the area for 15 of the 18 hazards (22 tracts; rated tracts only).
8 jurisdictions: plan clock, repeat-flood count, Public Assistance dollars and event records naming the place (starting figures from federal data).
County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not matched to a jurisdiction row here (for example county offices and boards filed under their own names, such as a sheriff's office or a conservation board, and state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.
Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b Vulnerability and potential impacts
The packet's table gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.
Plan 111195 was approved by FEMA on 2026-06-02 but is not yet adopted here, so no since-plan counts are given.
Local data needed
To gather:
- Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
- A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
- Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
- Future assets
Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a Vulnerability (county context)
Population 83,694; building value $17,834,908,223 and agriculture value $1,024,806,590 (total, not at risk).
National Risk Index rating Relatively Low; social vulnerability Relatively Low; community resilience Relatively Moderate.
Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c Repetitive loss properties
Repetitive-loss properties, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2): 0 repetitive loss, 1 severe repetitive loss. NFIP insurance definition: 21 and 1.
Mitigated 0; insured 3; NFIP data as of 2026-08-02. Counts by occupancy group and for each jurisdiction are in the packet.