Risk-assessment baseline packet. County area 51153. Release 2026-10, data as of 2026-09-28.
What the packet contains
Sections in FEMA checklist order. Each heading names the review item its tables support; whether the item is satisfied is decided by the plan and its reviewers. Full tables are in the downloads above.
Supports B1-a Hazards
16 of the 18 National Risk Index hazards apply here; omission evidence is shown only where NRI rates a hazard "Not Applicable", no federal declaration names it and Storm Events has no record of it since 1996.
Highest expected annual loss (NRI, modeled): Inland Flooding, Heat Wave and Tornado.
Also check locally (not covered by NRI): dam failure (incl. upstream dams), levee failure, flash flood as its own subtype, ice jams, debris flows, erosion (riverine and coastal), land subsidence and sinkholes and expansive soils.
Check your state hazard mitigation plan's hazard list for this county; explain any hazard you drop.
Supports B1-b Location
- Avalanche, Earthquake, Hurricane, Landslide, Tornado, Tsunami, Volcanic Activity and Wildfire: Census tract rating counts from the National Risk Index tract table (see B1-f). Tract maps and place names are not in this packet.
- Coastal Flooding and Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.
- Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather: Affects the whole planning area; national data do not distinguish locations within the county. Confirm locally.
Supports B1-c Extent
Storm Events records for 14 of 20 hazard groups, with the scale, observed range and worst recorded event for each; the others say local data required.
- Hail: 2.25 in hail, 2016-05-02
- Thunderstorm Wind: 78 kt (90 mph), measurement type not recorded, Thunderstorm Wind, 1983-08-04
- Tornado: F3 tornado, 1978-01-26, 0.7 mi path length (records before 1996 may include the whole path; rating and listing come from the county where the tornado began), 250 yd wide, $250,000 property; crops not recorded (1978 dollars), 1 direct death, 10 direct injuries
Supports B1-d Previous occurrences
20 federal declaration rows for this area (16 counted incidents), each with type, dates and county Public Assistance dollars.
New since the last plan (approved 2023-02-23): EM-3631-VA.
3 statewide declarations listed separately.
Hazards with no recorded events are stated as such (4 of 18).
Storm Events history: 1,060 records (notable ones in the PDF, all of them in the Excel file).
Supports B1-e Probability
FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) for each hazard, with a descriptor from a scale defined in the packet.
- Highly likely: Coastal Flooding, Hail, Inland Flooding, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather
- Likely: Cold Wave, Drought, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Landslide and Tornado
- Possible: Hurricane
Historical frequency by intensity band (tornado, hail, wind): 9 bands from Storm Events.
Supports B1-f Variation across the planning area
Range of census tract risk scores within the area for 18 hazards (93 tracts; rated tracts only).
5 member jurisdictions: plan clock, repeat-flood count, Public Assistance dollars and event records naming the place (starter, confirm locally).
Supports B2-a, B2-b Assets and impacts
Local data required
County-level starter. The plan must describe impacts for each participant and its own assets.
Storm Events damage since 2023-02-23: $4,719,000 in county-coded records (84 records); $0 reported for the zone (30 zone records). Data through 2026-06-30; nominal dollars.
Checklist of what to gather locally: Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard; A problem statement per participant per hazard; Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a); Future assets.
Supports B2-a Context
Population 481,359; building value $62,031,821,360 and agriculture value $14,955,296 (total, not at risk).
National Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate; social vulnerability Very Low; community resilience Relatively Moderate.
Supports B2-c Repetitive loss
Repetitive-loss properties, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2): 2 repetitive loss, 6 severe repetitive loss. NFIP insurance definition: 27 and 4.
Mitigated 1; insured 15; NFIP data as of 2026-08-02. Counts by occupancy and for each member community are in the packet.