Risk-assessment baseline packet. County FIPS 51019. Release 2026-10, data as of 2026-09-30.
Summary
Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Expired on 2026-02-08. Plan: PDC 11 Central Virginia Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 107130), approved 2021-02-09.
Since the plan was approved on 2021-02-09: 6 new hazard declarations (5 incidents) and 160 NOAA Storm Events records; details under "What changed since your last plan".
Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($12,922,324 a year), Hurricane ($826,821) and Strong Wind ($795,525).
The packet's tables are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); the summaries below follow the same order.
What the packet contains
Sections in FEMA checklist order; each heading names the review item its tables support. Full tables are in the downloads above.
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a Hazard identification
15 of the 18 National Risk Index hazards apply here.
Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.
Highest expected annual loss (NRI, modeled): Inland Flooding, Hurricane and Strong Wind.
Not covered by NRI (local data needed): dam failure (incl. upstream dams); levee failure; flash flood as its own subtype; ice jams; debris flows; erosion (riverine and coastal); land subsidence and sinkholes; expansive soils.
The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b Hazard location
- Avalanche, Earthquake, Hurricane, Landslide, Tornado and Wildfire vary within the county; the packet lists the highest-rated census tracts for each.
- Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather: affects the whole county; national data give no location within it.
- Inland Flooding: the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c Hazard extent
Storm Events records for 16 of the 21 NOAA event-type groups mapped to the 18 hazards, with the scale, observed range and worst recorded event for each; the others say which local data are needed.
Worst recorded tornado, hail and thunderstorm wind (the three event types on record since the 1950s; the packet has every group):
- Hail: 2.75 in hail, 2016-06-23; same size also recorded on 1998-05-16
- Thunderstorm Wind: 70 kt (81 mph) estimated gust, Thunderstorm Wind, 2024-04-11; same speed and measurement basis also recorded on 2003-05-09, 2006-04-07, 2010-09-22, 2013-07-03
- Tornado: EF2 tornado, 2022-05-27, 6.3 mi within this county, 330 yd wide, $925,000 property; $0 crops (2022 dollars), 3 direct injuries
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d Previous occurrences
Federal declarations for this area: 30 declarations covering 26 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet; each with type, dates and county Public Assistance dollars.
New since the last plan (approved 2021-02-09): EM-3631-VA, DR-4863-VA, DR-4831-VA, EM-3621-VA, DR-4644-VA and DR-4602-VA.
3 statewide declarations listed separately.
Hazards with no Storm Events record and no federal declaration are stated as such (5 of 18).
Storm Events history: 874 records (notable ones in the PDF, all of them in the Excel file).
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e Probability of future events
FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) for each hazard, with a descriptor from a scale defined in the packet.
- Highly likely: Hail, Landslide, Lightning and Strong Wind
- Likely: Cold Wave, Drought, Ice Storm, Inland Flooding, Tornado and Winter Weather
- Possible: Avalanche, Heat Wave, Hurricane and Wildfire
- Unlikely: Earthquake
Historical frequency by intensity band (tornado, hail, wind): 9 bands from Storm Events.
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f Hazards that vary across jurisdictions
Range of census tract risk scores within the area for 15 of the 18 hazards (20 tracts; rated tracts only).
2 jurisdictions: plan clock, repeat-flood count, Public Assistance dollars and event records naming the place (starting figures from federal data).
County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not matched to a jurisdiction row here (for example county offices and boards filed under their own names, such as a sheriff's office or a conservation board, and state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.
Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b Vulnerability and potential impacts
The packet's table gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.
Storm Events damage since 2021-02-09: $1,831,040 in county-coded records (133 records); $160,000 reported for the zone (27 zone records). Data through 2026-06-30; nominal dollars.
Local data needed
To gather:
- Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
- A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
- Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
- Future assets
Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a Vulnerability (county context)
Population 79,441; building value $15,574,826,834 and agriculture value $34,092,951 (total, not at risk).
National Risk Index rating Relatively Low; social vulnerability Relatively Low; community resilience Relatively Moderate.
Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c Repetitive loss properties
Repetitive-loss properties, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2): 0 repetitive loss, 2 severe repetitive loss. NFIP insurance definition: 4 and 2.
Mitigated 0; insured 0; NFIP data as of 2026-08-02. Counts by occupancy group and for each jurisdiction are in the packet.