Risk-assessment baseline packet. County FIPS 48311. Release 2026-10, data as of 2026-09-30.
Summary
Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Expired on 2026-02-02. Plan: Atascosa and McMullen Counties (FEMA plan 104806), approved 2021-02-03.
Since the plan was approved on 2021-02-03: 3 new hazard declarations (2 incidents) and 55 NOAA Storm Events records; details under "What changed since your last plan".
Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($395,837 a year), Cold Wave ($168,456) and Hurricane ($116,117).
The packet's tables are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); the summaries below follow the same order.
What the packet contains
Sections in FEMA checklist order; each heading names the review item its tables support. Full tables are in the downloads above.
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a Hazard identification
14 of the 18 National Risk Index hazards apply here.
Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.
Highest expected annual loss (NRI, modeled): Inland Flooding, Cold Wave and Hurricane.
Not covered by NRI (local data needed): dam failure (incl. upstream dams); levee failure; flash flood as its own subtype; ice jams; debris flows; erosion (riverine and coastal); land subsidence and sinkholes; expansive soils.
The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b Hazard location
- Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather: affects the whole county; national data give no location within it.
- Earthquake, Hurricane, Landslide, Tornado and Wildfire vary within the county; the packet lists the highest-rated census tracts for each.
- Inland Flooding: the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c Hazard extent
Storm Events records for 13 of the 21 NOAA event-type groups mapped to the 18 hazards, with the scale, observed range and worst recorded event for each; the others say which local data are needed.
Worst recorded tornado, hail and thunderstorm wind (the three event types on record since the 1950s; the packet has every group):
- Hail: 3 in hail, 2020-04-03
- Thunderstorm Wind: 60 kt (69 mph) estimated gust, Thunderstorm Wind, 2007-04-30
- Tornado: F2 tornado, 1959-05-10, 13.8 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 150 yd wide, $25,000 property (pre-1996 NOAA value, recorded in damage ranges); crops not recorded (1959 dollars)
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d Previous occurrences
Federal declarations for this area: 17 declarations covering 10 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet; each with type, dates and county Public Assistance dollars.
New since the last plan (approved 2021-02-03): DR-4935-TX, DR-4586-TX and EM-3554-TX.
10 statewide declarations listed separately.
Hazards with no Storm Events record and no federal declaration are stated as such (7 of 18).
Storm Events history: 206 records (notable ones in the PDF, all of them in the Excel file).
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e Probability of future events
FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) for each hazard, with a descriptor from a scale defined in the packet.
- Highly likely: Hail and Lightning
- Likely: Drought, Inland Flooding, Landslide, Strong Wind, Tornado and Winter Weather
- Possible: Cold Wave, Heat Wave, Hurricane, Ice Storm and Wildfire
- Unlikely: Earthquake
Historical frequency by intensity band (tornado, hail, wind): 9 bands from Storm Events.
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f Hazards that vary across jurisdictions
Range of census tract risk scores within the area for 14 of the 18 hazards (1 tract; rated tracts only).
1 jurisdiction: plan clock, repeat-flood count, Public Assistance dollars and event records naming the place (starting figures from federal data).
Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b Vulnerability and potential impacts
The packet's table gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.
Storm Events damage since 2021-02-03: $0 in county-coded records (5 records); $0 reported for the zone (50 zone records). Data through 2026-06-30; nominal dollars.
Local data needed
To gather:
- Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
- A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
- Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
- Future assets
- Texas A&M Forest Service TxWRAP for wildfire risk; Texas State Hazard Mitigation Plan hazard list for B1-a exclusions.
Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a Vulnerability (county context)
Population 600; building value $567,496,373 and agriculture value $10,735,917 (total, not at risk).
National Risk Index rating Very Low; social vulnerability Relatively Low; community resilience Very Low.
Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c Repetitive loss properties
Repetitive-loss properties, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2): 0 repetitive loss, 0 severe repetitive loss. NFIP insurance definition: 0 and 0.
Mitigated 0; insured 0; NFIP data as of 2026-08-02. Counts by occupancy group and for each jurisdiction are in the packet.