Risk-assessment baseline packet. County FIPS 35027. Release 2026-10, data as of 2026-09-30.
Summary
Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2029-03-17. Plan: Lincoln County (FEMA plan 109282), approved 2024-03-18.
Since the plan was approved on 2024-03-18: 6 new hazard declarations (3 incidents) and 132 NOAA Storm Events records; details under "What changed since your last plan".
Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Wildfire ($14,534,903 a year), Inland Flooding ($11,886,780) and Lightning ($638,599).
The packet's tables are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); the summaries below follow the same order.
What changed since your last plan (approved 2024-03-18)
- New federal declarations:
- 6 new hazard declarations (3 incidents): FM-5492-NM (Blue 2 Fire), FM-5497-NM (South Fork Fire), FM-5498-NM (Salt Fire), DR-4795-NM (South Fork Fire, Salt Fire, and Flooding), EM-3628-NM (Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides), DR-4886-NM (Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides)
- Storm Events records since approval:
- 132 records (data through 2026-06-30)
- Repetitive loss now:
- FMA RL 4, SRL 7 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 35
- Repeat-flood change:
- this release sets the baseline count.
What the packet contains
Sections in FEMA checklist order; each heading names the review item its tables support. Full tables are in the downloads above.
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a Hazard identification
16 of the 18 National Risk Index hazards apply here.
Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: coastal flooding and tsunami. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.
Highest expected annual loss (NRI, modeled): Wildfire, Inland Flooding and Lightning.
Not covered by NRI (local data needed): dam failure (incl. upstream dams); levee failure; flash flood as its own subtype; ice jams; debris flows; erosion (riverine and coastal); land subsidence and sinkholes; expansive soils.
The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b Hazard location
- Avalanche, Earthquake, Hurricane, Landslide, Tornado, Volcanic Activity and Wildfire vary within the county; the packet lists the highest-rated census tracts for each.
- Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather: affects the whole county; national data give no location within it.
- Inland Flooding: the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c Hazard extent
Storm Events records for 13 of the 21 NOAA event-type groups mapped to the 18 hazards, with the scale, observed range and worst recorded event for each; the others say which local data are needed.
Worst recorded tornado, hail and thunderstorm wind (the three event types on record since the 1950s; the packet has every group):
- Hail: 2.75 in hail, 2014-06-07; same size also recorded on 1989-06-10, 2013-06-07
- Thunderstorm Wind: 76 kt (87 mph) measured gust, Thunderstorm Wind, 2012-08-18
- Tornado: EF1 tornado, 2014-06-08, 1.75 mi within this county, 160 yd wide, $100,000 property; $0 crops (2014 dollars)
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d Previous occurrences
Federal declarations for this area: 35 declarations covering 25 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet; each with type, dates and county Public Assistance dollars.
New since the last plan (approved 2024-03-18): DR-4886-NM, EM-3628-NM, DR-4795-NM, FM-5498-NM, FM-5497-NM and FM-5492-NM.
3 statewide declarations listed separately.
Hazards with no Storm Events record and no federal declaration are stated as such (6 of 18).
Storm Events history: 719 records (notable ones in the PDF, all of them in the Excel file).
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e Probability of future events
FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) for each hazard, with a descriptor from a scale defined in the packet.
- Highly likely: Landslide and Lightning
- Likely: Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Inland Flooding, Strong Wind, Tornado, Wildfire and Winter Weather
- Possible: Avalanche, Hurricane and Ice Storm
- Unlikely: Earthquake and Volcanic Activity
Historical frequency by intensity band (tornado, hail, wind): 9 bands from Storm Events.
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f Hazards that vary across jurisdictions
Range of census tract risk scores within the area for 16 of the 18 hazards (9 tracts; rated tracts only).
6 jurisdictions: plan clock, repeat-flood count, Public Assistance dollars and event records naming the place (starting figures from federal data).
County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not matched to a jurisdiction row here (for example county offices and boards filed under their own names, such as a sheriff's office or a conservation board, and state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.
Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b Vulnerability and potential impacts
The packet's table gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.
Storm Events damage since 2024-03-18: $62,819,000 in county-coded records (71 records); $23,115,000 reported for the zone (61 zone records). Data through 2026-06-30; nominal dollars.
Local data needed
To gather:
- Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
- A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
- Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
- Future assets
Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a Vulnerability (county context)
Population 20,041; building value $6,643,440,068 and agriculture value $20,418,318 (total, not at risk).
National Risk Index rating Relatively Low; social vulnerability Very High; community resilience Very Low.
Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c Repetitive loss properties
Repetitive-loss properties, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2): 4 repetitive loss, 7 severe repetitive loss. NFIP insurance definition: 34 and 6.
Mitigated 0; insured 20; NFIP data as of 2026-08-02. Counts by occupancy group and for each jurisdiction are in the packet.