Risk-assessment baseline packet. County FIPS 37111. Release 2026-10, data as of 2026-09-30.
Summary
Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2031-03-30. Plan: Toe River Regional (FEMA plan 111584), approved 2026-03-31.
Since the plan was approved on 2026-03-31: no new hazard declaration and 4 NOAA Storm Events records; details under "What changed since your last plan".
Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($11,576,797 a year), Tornado ($1,222,450) and Cold Wave ($1,092,786).
The packet's tables are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); the summaries below follow the same order.
What the packet contains
Sections in FEMA checklist order; each heading names the review item its tables support. Full tables are in the downloads above.
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a Hazard identification
14 of the 18 National Risk Index hazards apply here.
Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.
Highest expected annual loss (NRI, modeled): Inland Flooding, Tornado and Cold Wave.
Not covered by NRI (local data needed): dam failure (incl. upstream dams); levee failure; flash flood as its own subtype; ice jams; debris flows; erosion (riverine and coastal); land subsidence and sinkholes; expansive soils.
The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b Hazard location
- Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather: affects the whole county; national data give no location within it.
- Earthquake, Hurricane, Landslide, Tornado and Wildfire vary within the county; the packet lists the highest-rated census tracts for each.
- Inland Flooding: the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c Hazard extent
Storm Events records for 14 of the 20 NOAA event-type groups mapped to the 18 hazards, with the scale, observed range and worst recorded event for each; the others say which local data are needed.
Worst recorded tornado, hail and thunderstorm wind (the three event types on record since the 1950s; the packet has every group):
- Hail: 2.5 in hail, 2011-04-09
- Thunderstorm Wind: 87 kt (100 mph), measurement type not recorded, Thunderstorm Wind, 1985-06-07
- Tornado: F2 tornado, 1998-05-07, 3.7 mi within this county, 880 yd wide, $482,000 property; crops not reported (1998 dollars)
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d Previous occurrences
Federal declarations for this area: 21 declarations covering 16 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet; each with type, dates and county Public Assistance dollars.
New since the last plan (approved 2026-03-31): none.
7 statewide declarations listed separately.
Hazards with no Storm Events record and no federal declaration are stated as such (6 of 18).
Storm Events history: 592 records (notable ones in the PDF, all of them in the Excel file).
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e Probability of future events
FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) for each hazard, with a descriptor from a scale defined in the packet.
- Highly likely: Hail, Landslide, Lightning and Strong Wind
- Likely: Cold Wave, Ice Storm, Inland Flooding, Tornado and Winter Weather
- Possible: Drought, Hurricane and Wildfire
- Unlikely: Earthquake
Historical frequency by intensity band (tornado, hail, wind): 9 bands from Storm Events.
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f Hazards that vary across jurisdictions
Range of census tract risk scores within the area for 14 of the 18 hazards (12 tracts; rated tracts only).
3 jurisdictions: plan clock, repeat-flood count, Public Assistance dollars and event records naming the place (starting figures from federal data).
County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not matched to a jurisdiction row here (for example county departments filed under their own names, such as a highway department or emergency management agency, and state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.
Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b Vulnerability and potential impacts
The packet's table gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.
Storm Events damage since 2026-03-31: $0 in county-coded records (2 records); $0 reported for the zone (2 zone records). Data through 2026-06-30; nominal dollars.
Local data needed
To gather:
- Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
- A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
- Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
- Future assets
Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a Vulnerability (county context)
Population 44,525; building value $8,685,992,163 and agriculture value $31,674,066 (total, not at risk).
National Risk Index rating Relatively Low; social vulnerability Relatively High; community resilience Relatively Low.
Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c Repetitive loss properties
Repetitive-loss properties, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2): 4 repetitive loss, 2 severe repetitive loss. NFIP insurance definition: 10 and 2.
Mitigated 0; insured 4; NFIP data as of 2026-08-02. Counts by occupancy group and for each jurisdiction are in the packet.