Automated baseline from FEMA and NOAA data, release 2026-10.

Methods and sources

Every packet is built the same way from public federal data, organized to FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c), from the 2025 Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide.

What a packet does

A packet gathers the federal data a risk assessment starts from; the plan team adds local knowledge.

FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names the same federal sources used here: NOAA Storm Events, OpenFEMA declarations and the National Risk Index.

On format, FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide (2025) says: There is no prescribed method for how to present this information (p. 18) and FEMA does not require any specific format (p. 13).

FEMA's review tool and its Element B items

FEMA reviews every local hazard mitigation plan with the Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Appendix A of the 2025 Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide. The tool lists the requirements a plan must meet, grouped in elements. Element B is the risk assessment. It has nine items, and each packet section says which one its tables support ("Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification").

Other items the packets mention: A4-a (the plan's sources) and E1-a (changes in development since the last plan). Georgia packets also show the letter of the GEMA local plan template next to each item.

How to read the labels

Automated baseline
Built automatically; passed the pipeline's quality checks. 3,456 of the 3,488 packets in this release carry this label; the other 32 were also checked line by line against the live sources.
Checked against live sources on (date)
On that date every number in the packet was compared line by line with the live FEMA and NOAA data by an automated review, a separate review rechecked the result, and every issue found was fixed or explained. Its page says: "This packet was checked line by line against live FEMA and NOAA sources on (date)." Release 2026-10 files published before the 2026-10-01 correction carried the earlier wording of this label, "Hand-checked on (date)"; it means the same check.
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a (and the other items)
The FEMA review item the section's tables are evidence for. The plan and FEMA's review decide whether the item is met.
Local data needed
Information federal data do not hold, which the plan adds from local sources. The packet names it; for B2-a and B2-b it also gives a county-level starter table and a checklist.
Modeled
A National Risk Index value from FEMA's model, not a count of events. "FEMA annualized frequency (modeled)" is not events divided by years.
Zone-level
A Storm Events record filed for a National Weather Service forecast zone, not a county. The zone may cover more than one county, so the event may have happened elsewhere in the zone. Zone damage is never added up across counties.
County-level (Vermont towns)
Town packets have their own plan clock and repeat-flood counts; hazard, probability and declaration tables come from the county and say so.
New since last plan and in the 12 months before plan approval
A declaration after the current plan's approval date is new. One in the 12 months before approval is marked separately, because plans are usually drafted before that window.
Nominal dollars
Dollars as reported, labeled with their year; not adjusted for inflation.

How the plan clock is set

Sources in this release

Versions and pull dates as stamped for release 2026-10. The pull date is the day (UTC) the file was downloaded. "Records read" is the number of rows in the file as downloaded.

PublisherDatasetVersionPulledRecords readUpdates
FEMAOpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1
API
2026-09-29T134039Z2026-09-3036,718Daily at FEMA
FEMAOpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2
API
2026-09-29T162832Z2026-09-3070,422About every 20 minutes at FEMA
FEMAOpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1
API
2026-09-29T150754Z; covers declarations through 2026-06-302026-09-30196,693Daily at FEMA
FEMAOpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1
API
FEMA as-of date 2026-08-02
2026-08-04T164045Z2026-09-30240,651About once a year (FEMA as-of date)
FEMAFEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables
NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
1.20.02026-09-303,232Fixed at version 1.20 (December 2025)
NOAA NCEINOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0)c202609182026-09-302,052,037Monthly files, about 3 months behind
NOAA National Weather ServiceNWS county-public forecast zones correlation filebp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), rows of all files combined2026-09-3051,795New files now and then
U.S. Census BureauCensus 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk
2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, 2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, 2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, 2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, 2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, 2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, national_place_by_county2020.txt, ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx
2024-gazetteer2026-09-30118,920Fixed reference files
U.S. Census BureauCensus 2020 Block Assignment Files (county subdivision and place)
web page
baf20202026-10-02170,432Fixed 2020 Census files
U.S. Census BureauCensus county adjacency file, 2024 vintage
county_adjacency2024.txt
20242026-10-0318,960Fixed 2024 Census file
NOAA National Hurricane CenterNHC HURDAT2 best-track data (Atlantic 1851 to 2025; Northeast and North Central Pacific 1949 to 2025)
hurdat2-1851-2025-092326.txt, hurdat2-nepac-1949-2025-092926.txt
2025-0923262026-10-033,250Once a year, after each hurricane season (NHC)

Storm Events data run through 2026-06-30; NCEI publishes with a lag of about three months. The hazard type crosswalk (declaration and Storm Events types to the 18 NRI hazards) is a reviewed table with a rationale for every row.

Data-error screens

Values outside physical limits are screened: the packet leaves the value out, says so, and never substitutes a corrected figure; the record still counts as an occurrence unless it is an exact duplicate.

Source quirks shown as recorded

Method details

The packets keep short notes; the full text of these rules is here.

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) comes from the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025). It is not recorded events divided by years, and what it measures depends on the hazard. For most hazards it estimates how often the hazard affects this county each year: it counts events or event-days (drought, heat wave, cold wave, winter weather, ice storm and inland flooding are in days per year; lightning is the number of days per year with a recorded cloud-to-ground strike, from the NOAA Storm Prediction Center daily lightning climatology); it may count events in the surrounding area (hail, strong wind, tornado, hurricane and ice storm use a 49 km grid and buffers) and is averaged over the county's area; and some hazards use a minimum value for places with no recorded event. Earthquake, wildfire and coastal flooding are different: FEMA computes them for each census block and averages them over the county, so the value is the chance (for coastal flooding, the modeled number of floods per year) at a location in the county, which is lower than the chance that the hazard strikes somewhere in the county. Earthquake is the chance of at least minor-damage shaking (U.S. Geological Survey model); wildfire is the chance that a location burns in a large fire (U.S. Forest Service burn probability); coastal flooding comes from FEMA flood zones and NOAA high-tide flooding, so it can be above 1 where high-tide flooding is frequent. Tsunami is the value at the county's most exposed location, from recorded events and modeled return periods. For these four hazards the packet gives no "1 in N years" and takes the descriptor from Storm Events unless the value is 1 or more a year; with no Storm Events record (always for earthquake) it applies the same scale to the chance at a location, which the county as a whole at least reaches. Landslide is a U.S. Geological Survey modeled county rate spread by slope susceptibility. Volcanic activity is the chance that a volcano affecting the county erupts in a year. Drought counts only extreme and exceptional drought (D3 and D4). Source: FEMA, National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20, sections 5.2.2 (Table 5), 5.2.3, 7.4, 10.4, 16.5, 17.1, 17.3.1, 17.5, 20.3.1, 21.4, 22.4 and chapters 6 to 23.

Storm Events coverage and zone matching

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records are placed with NWS zone-county files, which exist from 2020 on; older, renumbered and unmatched zone records are handled as described under Source quirks. Zone records whose zone is in no NWS zone file are not counted; this applies to records from 2020 on as well. Records before 2020 use the zone map of the earliest available NWS file; NWS has since redrawn some zones. A record from a zone in no known file whose zone name is the name of exactly one county of its state (for example "Pocahontas", West Virginia) is placed in that county as a zone-level record; names that a county shares with an independent city (Baltimore, Richmond, Fairfax, Franklin, Roanoke) are not placed. Within a county, zone records that share a NOAA episode, event type and begin date count as one record (for example a tropical storm logged for both the Coastal Levy and Inland Levy zones of Levy County, Florida); the record kept is a county-coded record of the same episode, type and day if there is one, else the strongest zone record; a county-coded record is merged only when it repeats another tornado record of the county exactly (same path, swapped or copied length and width). The most damaging record in B1-c reads every record, merged or not, and zone damage is never added across counties.

Places named by Storm Events records

A county-coded record names a place when NOAA's begin or end location is the place's name. NOAA gives many locations as a distance and direction from a reference place ("76.69 miles ENE of Keysville"); the record still counts for the place it names, and the packet prints NOAA's distance and direction beside every place a record names, and on each jurisdiction's row how many of its records are at a distance and how far.

Public Assistance matched to jurisdictions

FEMA files Public Assistance by applicant name. A row counts for a jurisdiction only when its name and kind identify exactly one jurisdiction; FEMA's county field stays the basis of every county total. Beyond the basic forms, these name forms count: a county's own operating departments filed under the county's name (highway, roads, secondary roads, road and bridge, public works, engineer, emergency management, emergency services, parks, facilities; not the sheriff, clerk, auditor, treasurer, coroner, health departments, boards, commissions, districts, authorities or utilities), with a note on the county's row; FEMA's slash form "applicant / sub-unit" when the applicant before the slash has an explicit kind ("Wadena, City of / Police") and the sub-unit is not one of those separate offices or bodies or another government; Kansas USD and rural water district numbers, and a "Schools" form when one school district of that name is in the county (also when only one of the two names ends in a district number); a Massachusetts city that Census names "X Town city" for "Town of X" or "City of X"; a township filed as "X Township, Y County" under its own county Y; "X, City of" for a city whose own name ends in City (Lake Havasu City) when the state has no place named X; three reviewed names of one consolidated government (San Francisco, Anchorage, Opa-locka); four Nebraska school districts' legal names that their NCES state district IDs prove ("Douglas County School District 0001" is Omaha Public Schools); a town or township that Census records as consolidated with the place of the same name and land area (functional status C: "Derby, Town of" is Derby city); and Connecticut and St. Louis rows filed with no county. A row FEMA files under one county that names, by name and kind, exactly one jurisdiction of another county is added to that jurisdiction's row with a note naming the county FEMA used. A bare name that two or more jurisdictions of a county share ("Woodstock" for a town and a village) counts for none of them; each of their rows says how much FEMA files under that name. Department names that start with a city's or town's name but carry no applicant form FEMA uses for the government itself (for example "Omaha Public Works") are not counted; the jurisdiction's row gives their total. In the District of Columbia and Guam, Public Assistance FEMA files as Statewide or with no county is the unit's own; in American Samoa, the Northern Mariana Islands and the U.S. Virgin Islands it is not split by island, and each declaration row says how much FEMA files territory-wide.

Hazards of a declaration

FEMA records a declaration's hazards in its incident type, in its designated incident type codes (from 2023 on) and in its title. In Severe Storm and Severe Winter Storm titles, "winds" maps to Strong Wind and "heat" to Heat Wave. When the codes are present, a hazard the title names that the codes do not is added as "also designated (named in FEMA's title)", so declarations with the same title map the same way before and after 2023.

Tornado path length

From 1996 on, tornado records are per-county segments and length is the path length within the county (NWS Instruction 10-1605). Records before 1996 may give the whole path length, including the path outside the county, and before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with the whole path's rating; counties farther along the path may not list it. Length is not used to rank tornadoes.

Strongest recorded tropical storm

For hurricanes and tropical storms the packet names the strongest record: records with damage, a wind speed or direct casualties come first, then the storm type, category and wind. Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's event type and category, so a hurricane record (NOAA event type "Hurricane (Typhoon)"), especially an inland or remnant one, does not by itself mean hurricane-force winds in the county.

Hurricane records NOAA filed under other types

NOAA sometimes files a tropical cyclone's damage under another event type: in Florida in 2004, Hurricanes Charley, Frances and Jeanne are High Wind and Strong Wind records, and Hurricane Harvey's 2017 Houston-area flooding is Flash Flood records. NOAA's type is kept. A High Wind, Strong Wind, Thunderstorm Wind, Heavy Rain, Flood, Flash Flood, Lakeshore Flood, Coastal Flood or Storm Surge/Tide record is also counted under Hurricane when the record's event or episode narrative names a storm in NOAA's HURDAT2 best-track list for that year (Atlantic, Northeast and North Central Pacific) and the record begins between 2 days before the storm's first best-track position and 5 days after its last. The episode narrative describes the whole weather episode and is shared by every record of it, so most matches are in the episode narrative. The narrative names the storm in one of these forms (any capitalization): "Hurricane", "Tropical Storm", "TS" or "T.S.", "Tropical Depression", "Tropical Cyclone", "Post-Tropical Cyclone", "Subtropical" or "Extratropical Storm", "Hurricane/Tropical Storm" or "remnants of" before the name; or the name alone, only when that same narrative also says "tropical", "hurricane", "remnant" or "landfall", and not when the name is part of a place name (Florence County, Port Arthur) or the record's own county or location name. For years after the newest HURDAT2 season, only the forms with words before the name count, and the name must be a HURDAT2 storm name of six years earlier, since NHC's name lists repeat every six years. These records are matched by name only, with no track dates yet, and the packet's note for the row says so. Such a record is labeled with NOAA's type and the storm as the narrative names it ("NOAA type High Wind; narrative names Hurricane Charley"), is listed in the Hurricane extent row "Wind, rain, flood or surge records whose NOAA event or episode narrative names a tropical cyclone", and counts once in every total over all hazards. A few records name the storm only as context (for example a thunderstorm "between a cold front and Hurricane Arthur off the Delaware coast"); they are counted by the same rule, so read the narrative before attributing a record's damage to the storm (the packet's Hurricane row note and Storm Events history say this too). Misspelled names, West Pacific storms (not in HURDAT2) and storms recalled from earlier in a season do not count.

Expected annual loss far above the neighboring counties' median

The packet copies FEMA's National Risk Index expected annual loss as published and ranks hazards by it. Where the figure is far above the neighboring counties' median and NOAA's records, the value and its rank stay as they are and a caveat is printed beside it (B1-a, the summary on page 1 and the site page). All of these must hold: the hazard is one Storm Events records as such (not earthquake, landslide, lightning, tsunami, volcanic activity or wildfire); the hazard is not drought, since Storm Events records drought damage poorly and its drought history is no test of FEMA's figure (heat wave and cold wave stay in, since NOAA records heat and cold deaths); the loss is at least $100,000 a year; it is at least 10 times the median of the neighboring counties that have a loss for the hazard (at least 2 of them; Census county adjacency file, 2024); its loss per dollar exposed is at least 3 times their median, so a county that is only larger is not flagged; and every NOAA Storm Events record of the hazard placed in the county, including same-day records of the same episode that the history merges into one, shows no direct deaths or injuries, with recorded damage below 10% of one year of the modeled loss. The caveat says what it counts: the records counted under the hazard (and how many of them are NOAA types outside FEMA's definition, such as Frost/Freeze under Cold Wave), the count from 1996 on when the records start earlier (the period of the B1-a records column), and any merged same-day records. The NOAA test also reads zone records that no NWS zone file places when the zone name names the county (for example "KERN CTY MTNS"); they are not counted anywhere else. Such a record does not count for a county when its NOAA narrative places it only in other counties, by county name or by a town that lies in one other county: the event narrative's sentences on the death, injury or damage are read first, then the places the rest of the event narrative names, and the episode narrative's sentences on the loss only when the event narrative names no place at all (a 2005 Utah avalanche record whose zone name lists twelve counties, and whose narrative places both deaths in Sanpete County, does not count for the other eleven).

B1-f hazards by jurisdiction table

Under B1-f, a packet whose plan lists cities, towns, townships or the county has a table of the National Risk Index hazards by jurisdiction. It is a draft from federal data for the planning team to confirm and trim. A row covers every 2020 census tract that holds part of the jurisdiction's area in this county (land or water). The tracts come from the Census 2020 block assignment files: each block code carries its tract, and the same files give the block's county subdivision and place (for townships in Illinois, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota and Ohio, the county subdivision comes from the block records of the 2020 redistricting data).

A cell has one of three states. X: at least one of the row's tracts has an NRI rating from Very Low to Very High for the hazard. o: none is rated, but at least one is NRI "No Rating", meaning NRI models no expected annual loss there (no exposed buildings, people or crops, or a modeled frequency of zero). That is not the same as "cannot occur": NRI counts drought losses to crops only and models drought frequency from extreme and exceptional (D3 and D4) drought weeks since 2000, so a town with little farmland, or with no D3 to D4 drought on record, reads o for drought. Blank: NRI rates the hazard Not Applicable or Insufficient Data in every tract of the row. That is not proof the hazard cannot occur either: Insufficient Data means NRI lacks the data to rate it, not that it is absent. Hazards that are blank in every tract of the county are left out of the table and named under it.

A city that crosses a county line counts only its area in this county. The county's own row covers the area in no incorporated place and in no town listed in the table (or the whole county when there is no such area). Special and school districts take the row of the town or place their name contains, and the team confirms the service area; districts whose name contains no listed town or place are named under the table. Census tracts are coarse, so in rural counties several towns share a tract and show the same row. Connecticut: NRI keys tracts by planning region, and a block's region comes from its town. No table is built for American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands or the U.S. Virgin Islands, for which the Census publishes no 2020 block assignment file.

Repetitive loss: the OpenFEMA fields

The FMA counts use OpenFEMA's fmaRl and fmaSrl flags, which follow the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions of 44 CFR 77.2 (the ones the Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites); the field description of fmaRl leaves out the Increased Cost of Compliance clause of 44 CFR 77.2(i). The NFIP counts use nfipRl and nfipSrl, the insurance definitions (repetitive loss: 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years), which can change to false once a property is mitigated. FEMA's NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file carries its own data date, which can be a few days before the file's version date.

Scope of the federal data

Rules for edge cases in this release

Rules applied where the source data allow two treatments:

How to cite

Each jurisdiction page has a "Cite this" line with the exact text. The pattern is:

Hazard Plain (year). Jurisdiction, ST: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; unit type and code). Automated baseline.

On a packet checked against live sources the label in that line reads "Checked against live sources on (date)", as on its page.

Packets, tables and pages are CC BY 4.0 (reuse with credit to Hazard Plain and the release); the federal source data are public domain, and OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms. Each packet, state file and bulk file carries the reuse line, a "Cite this" line and the corrections contact.

For the plan's bibliography (FEMA element A4-a), cite the federal sources themselves. Every table in a packet carries its source line; the sources of this release are: