Middlesex County, MA

Supports B1-a Hazards

16 of the 18 National Risk Index hazards apply here; omission evidence is shown only where NRI rates a hazard "Not Applicable", no federal declaration names it and Storm Events has no record of it since 1996.

Highest expected annual loss (NRI, modeled): Inland Flooding, Hurricane and Earthquake.

Also check locally (not covered by NRI): dam failure (incl. upstream dams), levee failure, flash flood as its own subtype, ice jams, debris flows, erosion (riverine and coastal), land subsidence and sinkholes and expansive soils.

Check your state hazard mitigation plan's hazard list for this county; explain any hazard you drop.

Supports B1-b Location

• Avalanche, Earthquake, Hurricane, Landslide, Tornado, Tsunami, Volcanic Activity and Wildfire: Census tract rating counts from the National Risk Index tract table (see B1-f). Tract maps and place names are not in this packet.
• Coastal Flooding and Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.
• Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather: Affects the whole planning area; national data do not distinguish locations within the county. Confirm locally.

Supports B1-c Extent

Storm Events records for 12 of 20 hazard groups, with the scale, observed range and worst recorded event for each; the others say local data required.

• Hail: 2.25 in hail, 1988-06-22
• Thunderstorm Wind: 87 kt (100 mph) estimated gust, Thunderstorm Wind, 2020-05-15; same speed and measurement basis also recorded on 2014-07-07
• Tornado: F3 tornado, 1974-09-29, 33 yd wide, $250,000 property; crops not recorded (1974 dollars), 1 direct injury; same rating, casualties and property damage also recorded on 1970-10-03

Supports B1-d Previous occurrences

35 federal declaration rows for this area (27 counted incidents), each with type, dates and county Public Assistance dollars.

No county-level plan row in FEMA data, so there is no approval date to count from.

3 statewide declarations listed separately.

Hazards with no recorded events are stated as such (5 of 18).

Storm Events history: 1,590 records (notable ones in the PDF, all of them in the Excel file).

Supports B1-e Probability

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) for each hazard, with a descriptor from a scale defined in the packet.

• Highly likely: Coastal Flooding, Hail, Inland Flooding, Lightning and Winter Weather
• Likely: Drought, Heat Wave, Hurricane, Ice Storm, Landslide, Strong Wind and Tornado
• Possible: Cold Wave

Historical frequency by intensity band (tornado, hail, wind): 9 bands from Storm Events.

Supports B1-f Variation across the planning area

Range of census tract risk scores within the area for 18 hazards (357 tracts; rated tracts only).

55 member jurisdictions: plan clock, repeat-flood count, Public Assistance dollars and event records naming the place (starter, confirm locally).

Supports B2-a, B2-b Assets and impacts

Local data required

County-level starter. The plan must describe impacts for each participant and its own assets.

No county-level plan row in FEMA data, so there is no approval date to count from.

Checklist of what to gather locally: Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard; A problem statement per participant per hazard; Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a); Future assets.

Supports B2-a Context

Population 1,629,857; building value $342,960,949,790 and agriculture value $81,565,210 (total, not at risk).

National Risk Index rating Relatively High; social vulnerability Very Low; community resilience Very High.

Supports B2-c Repetitive loss

Repetitive-loss properties, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2): 3 repetitive loss, 27 severe repetitive loss. NFIP insurance definition: 389 and 26.

Mitigated 1; insured 134; NFIP data as of 2026-08-02. Counts by occupancy and for each member community are in the packet.