Risk-assessment baseline packet. County FIPS 21051. Release 2026-10, data as of 2026-09-30.
Summary
Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2027-08-16. Plan: Cumberland Valley ADD Regional (FEMA plan 107913), approved 2022-08-17.
Since the plan was approved on 2022-08-17: 11 new hazard declarations (8 incidents) and 45 NOAA Storm Events records; details under "What changed since your last plan".
Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($12,440,182 a year), Cold Wave ($1,260,700) and Tornado ($546,531).
The packet's tables are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); the summaries below follow the same order.
What changed since your last plan (approved 2022-08-17)
- New federal declarations:
- 11 new hazard declarations (8 incidents): DR-4702-KY (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides), DR-4711-KY (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides), DR-4804-KY (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Landslides, and Mudslides), DR-4848-KY (Remnants of Hurricane Helene), EM-3624-KY (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides), DR-4860-KY (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides), EM-3626-KY (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding), DR-4864-KY (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides), DR-4875-KY (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes), EM-3633-KY (Severe Winter Storm), DR-4913-KY (Severe Winter Storm)
- Storm Events records since approval:
- 45 records (data through 2026-06-30)
- Repetitive loss now:
- FMA RL 0, SRL 1 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 5
- Repeat-flood change:
- this release sets the baseline count.
What the packet contains
Sections in FEMA checklist order; each heading names the review item its tables support. Full tables are in the downloads above.
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a Hazard identification
15 of the 18 National Risk Index hazards apply here.
Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.
Highest expected annual loss (NRI, modeled): Inland Flooding, Cold Wave and Tornado.
Not covered by NRI (local data needed): dam failure (incl. upstream dams); levee failure; flash flood as its own subtype; ice jams; debris flows; erosion (riverine and coastal); land subsidence and sinkholes; expansive soils.
The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b Hazard location
- Avalanche, Earthquake, Hurricane, Landslide, Tornado and Wildfire vary within the county; the packet lists the highest-rated census tracts for each.
- Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather: affects the whole county; national data give no location within it.
- Inland Flooding: the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c Hazard extent
Storm Events records for 12 of the 20 NOAA event-type groups mapped to the 18 hazards, with the scale, observed range and worst recorded event for each; the others say which local data are needed.
Worst recorded tornado, hail and thunderstorm wind (the three event types on record since the 1950s; the packet has every group):
- Hail: 2.75 in hail, 2014-07-27
- Thunderstorm Wind: 65 kt (75 mph) estimated gust, Thunderstorm Wind, 2006-05-26
- Tornado: F2 tornado, 1974-04-03, 2.3 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 33 yd wide, $2,500,000 property; crops not recorded (1974 dollars)
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d Previous occurrences
Federal declarations for this area: 48 declarations covering 41 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet; each with type, dates and county Public Assistance dollars.
New since the last plan (approved 2022-08-17): DR-4913-KY, EM-3633-KY, DR-4875-KY, DR-4864-KY, EM-3626-KY, DR-4860-KY, EM-3624-KY, DR-4848-KY, DR-4804-KY, DR-4711-KY and DR-4702-KY.
4 statewide declarations listed separately.
Hazards with no Storm Events record and no federal declaration are stated as such (6 of 18).
Storm Events history: 422 records (notable ones in the PDF, all of them in the Excel file).
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e Probability of future events
FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) for each hazard, with a descriptor from a scale defined in the packet.
- Highly likely: Hail, Landslide, Lightning and Strong Wind
- Likely: Ice Storm, Inland Flooding, Tornado and Winter Weather
- Possible: Avalanche, Cold Wave, Drought, Heat Wave, Hurricane and Wildfire
- Unlikely: Earthquake
Historical frequency by intensity band (tornado, hail, wind): 9 bands from Storm Events.
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f Hazards that vary across jurisdictions
Range of census tract risk scores within the area for 15 of the 18 hazards (8 tracts; rated tracts only).
2 jurisdictions: plan clock, repeat-flood count, Public Assistance dollars and event records naming the place (starting figures from federal data).
County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not matched to a jurisdiction row here (for example county departments filed under their own names, such as a highway department or emergency management agency, and state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.
Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b Vulnerability and potential impacts
The packet's table gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.
Storm Events damage since 2022-08-17: $406,000 in county-coded records (39 records); $33,500 reported for the zone (6 zone records). Data through 2026-06-30; nominal dollars.
Local data needed
To gather:
- Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
- A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
- Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
- Future assets
Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a Vulnerability (county context)
Population 20,339; building value $2,578,250,662 and agriculture value $6,720,688 (total, not at risk).
National Risk Index rating Relatively Low; social vulnerability Very High; community resilience Very Low.
Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c Repetitive loss properties
Repetitive-loss properties, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2): 0 repetitive loss, 1 severe repetitive loss. NFIP insurance definition: 5 and 1.
Mitigated 0; insured 2; NFIP data as of 2026-08-02. Counts by occupancy group and for each jurisdiction are in the packet.